Software is projected to account for almost half of total security-product revenue by 2030, a forecast that promises to shift profit margins and cash flow away from hardware and toward software offerings. That projection opened the Security Megatrends panel at Securing New Ground in New York City this morning. Securing New Ground is the annual executive conference hosted by the Security Industry Association (SIA), bringing together top figures in electronic and physical security.
The panel featured:
- Steve Van Till, president and CEO, Brivo
- Devin Love, director of product management, Allegion
- Tara Dunning, vice president of converging technology, global sales and strategy, Wesco
- Eric Yunag, executive vice president of products and services, Convergint
Panelists outlined four interlocking trends reshaping the security sector: a rapid software revolution, AI’s growing influence on existing platforms, hardware’s role in feeding AI with real‐world data and a fundamental overhaul of traditional channel selling.
Steve Van Till introduced what he called an “invisible megatrend”—software’s expanding share of the security budget. He showed data predicting that software will represent roughly 45 percent of product revenue by 2030, excluding integrator income. This, he said, “has massive implications for where profit margins and cash flow will soon center themselves.”
He urged integrators to adapt swiftly. “Integrators must adapt quickly so they can tap into that growth corridor,” he added. Sales teams accustomed to pitching cameras, access panels and sensors will need fluency in subscription models, licensing schemes and cloud-based analytics.
Most startups in security today are software-centric or majority-software operations. Van Till argued the industry should no longer call itself a manufacturer. “We need to stop calling ourselves manufacturers and call ourselves security technology providers,” he said, suggesting this shift in identity would match the sector’s evolution beyond box sales.
AI adds a fresh twist. Van Till reported that 55 percent of ISC West exhibitors claim AI integration in their platforms. He quoted Bessemer Venture Partners: “AI is a mass extinction event for software.” He warned that advanced AI can reassemble complex applications in a fraction of the development time once required.
Still, the security field retains protective moats: large-scale hardware deployments, integrator expertise and the art of weaving multiple products into unified solutions. Van Till cautioned against complacency, pointing out NVIDIA’s rise from GPU vendor to stock market heavyweight as a reminder that hardware can surge back.
Devin Love spotlighted hardware’s crucial role in feeding AI with accurate, real-time inputs. He likened devices to a “blood-brain barrier” for AI, capturing environmental data that algorithms cannot generate on their own. He explained that clear, understood and available hardware APIs let sensors, locks and cameras transmit signals directly into AI engines. “That means we need to drive to clear, understood and available hardware APIs,” Love said. He noted that solutions incorporating these interfaces command higher margins and boost end-user satisfaction.
Tara Dunning brought convergence into focus, a trend SIA has tracked over several years. She traced the arc from rapid sensor proliferation to last year’s emphasis on visual intelligence. “The sensorization of all things,” she observed, collects audio, video and environmental data. Advanced analytics then transform raw streams into insights that extend beyond simple intrusion alerts.
The next step is converged systems and unified intelligent control. Dunning described a unified dashboard aggregating enterprise platforms—CRM, ERP and identity management—with physical security and building systems like HVAC. “For the building operator, manager, IT manager [or] facilities manager, they want an aggregated view,” she said. Rejecting the overused “single pane of glass,” she endorsed dashboards that surface actionable alerts, key performance metrics and automated workflows.
Eric Yunag examined the traditional go-to-market channel, describing it as a linear pipeline designed to move products rather than guarantee outcomes. In today’s dynamic tech ecosystem, complexity can breed friction, unclear responsibilities and misaligned incentives across manufacturers, integrators and end users.
His proposed remedy is a value chain model that centers on measurable end-user outcomes. “We’re sitting here in this room, with the leadership of our industry, with a collective responsibility to think about how we collaborate differently to solve these problems for end users,” Yunag said. He called for a “build with” mindset that co-designs solutions alongside partners instead of a “sell through” logic that pushes hardware boxes.
Yunag summed up the shift as “[It’s going] from efficiency to effectiveness.” He contrasted two questions: How do we efficiently move products to end markets? and How do we effectively deliver security outcomes? The latter, he argued, demands shared metrics, joint planning, transparent cost structures and ongoing support agreements.
All speakers stressed that software, hardware, data and AI must operate as a seamless continuum. Manufacturers, integrators and end users will need to collaborate on system architecture, deployment best practices and lifecycle services. Only that level of orchestration can deliver the consistent security outcomes today’s organizations demand.
According to the panel, companies embracing this holistic, outcome-driven approach will outpace competitors that cling to isolated specialties or legacy channel models. The SIA Security Megatrends report capturing these insights is slated for release around January 2026.
